He knew there would be trouble, but did not realize the extent of it. Still, he probably would have made the same decision. When I imagine him, I see that scene from Babylon 5, where Londo Mollari watches from the flagship as the Centauri Republic Navy starts dropping rocks on the Narn homeworld.

 

While substantial troop losses taking Sol System were avoided - Mars and the outer colonies sensibly surrendered as soon as orbital control was lost - the logistical strain was too high.  The strain was higher IMTU than in canon, since I restrict jumps to straight line travel (along the rows of the jump map hexes . . . which is why jump maps are drawn using a hex layout . . . nothing to do with 1970s RPG cliches . . .).

To put it simply, the Imperial Navy had reached the end of its logistics tether and could go no further.

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