In the short term, [dissolving the Moot] made sense - he started by dissolving it for a
year, and could make a case for needing that time to settle things down,
clean up after Dulinor, etc. However, he didn't use that time
effectively, and then he extended the dissolution, making it look very
like he was afriad of what the Moot might find/do if it convened again.
I agree, but I think it is reasonable for both Dulinor and Lucan to have a "home before the leaves fall" attitude to the whole thing. Both probably assumed that the opponent's cause was dead in the water. And when it was not, then one or two decisive battles between the main fleets would decide the matter.
[In fact, this is the main anomaly trying to draw a comparison with similar European events. Dulinor should have gathered all his forces and marched on Capital. Lucan should have gathered all his forces for a decisive battle at a strategically suitable point between Ilelish and Capital. Winner takes all. His opponent de facto loses most of his legitimacy and most of his supporters. Very few historic coup attempts remained unresolved for long.]
Of course, if you were Lucan and you felt that there was a pretty good chance of even a cursory Moot investigation finding that you killed Varian, what would you do? Better to put up with a whispering campaign that you are "afraid of what the Moot might find", than having to put up with conclusive evidence that you did indeed murder your twin!
Margaret's faction mostly wanted business as usual to resume. That's why
I think just letting her, and her supporters sit in Delphi and play and
running trains on time until Dulinor and Strephon (or his double, or
android, or whatever) were dealt with, and then going with a diplomatic
solution to Margaret's faction would've worked.
To be sure, by then Vland and Antares were also separate, but I think
Antares would've come back in with diplomacy, and the Vland resurgence
would've died over time (being completely surrounded by the Imperium.
Norris and the Spinward Marches would've declared for Lucan if his seat
on the throne looked firm and they were assured of 'business as usual'.
Daidei probably likewise, especially if reinforcements against the Aslan
and Solomani were part of the deal.
Once the factions are established with their own power base then, yes, Lucan is best letting Margaret run her own domain. I am not aware that Margaret herself ever actually claimed the Throne, or whether she officially was just being "a responsible sector duchess looking after her fief" (with the hidden implication that she also might be able to claim the Throne herself in future).
I agree that Daibei, Antares, and Deneb are likely to rejoin the Imperium if there is "one clear winner" within a year or two. I also suspect that Vland might need a bit of coercion - they certainly seemed to be running the Vilani nationalism shtick a bit too hard for it to be walked back easily.
However, as mentioned earlier, once the main fleets-in-being have been destroyed, and Black War has started between Lucan and Dulinor/Strephon (with the loss of the ability to rebuild formidable offensive forces), say 1118/1119?, then the war is going to go on for a lot longer - at least a generation or two. It is not just the individuals involved, it is the fact that the continuing institutions (and economies and populations) of the Imperium have been badly damaged, which means that circumstances now favour any adventurer with a bit of military power having a shot at the Throne.
In these circumstances, Daibei, Antares, and Deneb are going to stand-off until it is clear that Imperial instability has been restored on a permanent basis. This might be 50 years or so after the end of any Rump vs Ilelish conflict.
The only possible exception I see is that the early death of Margaret, or of Lucan, might result in both factions recognising the survivor as the rightful Emperor. It would help if the two factions were on at least halfway-decent terms, so that is another reason for "Lucan" to keep things civil with "Margaret". It would also help if Lucan or Margaret did not have heirs of their own.
If Lucan is the survivor, he inherits Margaret's fleets-in-being (assuming the true leaders of "Margaret" let him have them) - the Black War starts up again. If Margaret is the survivor, Dulinor and her might be able to come to a negotiated settlement.
But, a question ...
Assuming Dulinor's Coronation Fleet takes Capital in 1130. Lucan is presumed lost in the fighting, and never seen again. As I mentioned in my original posting, I think Dulinor is now secure, but he has very little ability to expand outwards, and might not be able to even hold on to Core if it chooses not to recognise him (it IS a fair way from his home base). Diplomatically, what do you think might go down between his faction and "Margaret" at that point??
Of course, it might be Lucan who has the accident.
Don't think that "Margaret" weren't aware of this fact. And don't think that "Lucan's" paranoia about disloyal elements wasn't based on them being aware of "Margaret's" awareness!
The real problem, and this is why I don't think it works for Lucan's
policies to merely be from his advisors, is that he takes everything
personally. All splinter factions must be punished, because they failed
him personally. All failures are a personal insult, so he demands the
heads of his admirals after any set-back (causing all those with any
talent to sell to go elsewhere), and so on. Now, such people rapidly are
either removed or get themselves like-minded advisors and yes-men, and
they very quickly find that they have to humour their boss or they're on
the chopping block too.
Well, how much of this is realistic, and how much of it is GDW writing style? I just ret-con most of the excesses of Lucan's behaviour to be be scuttlebutt coming from those who are not benefiting from being on the good side of Lucan's supporters. Maybe, maybe, some of Lucan's supporters might have been a little too enthusiastic at times, and from such happenings rumors begin ...
History would say that leaders who actually behaved as erratically AND as cruelly as Lucan tended to meet sticky ends within a few years.
Enjoying the discussion, Rupert - thanks for your input!
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Cheers,
KenB