> Maybe it wasn't quite as secret as we might believe.

It's also entirely possible that the Federations intel services added a
healthy dose of disinformation to rumors about Merlin.

Example the UFO craze of the 1960s and the 1980s,  sometimes poked to
cover super secret projects

Like area 51 -  not only did they have the early Stealth projects and
the F-117 projects nearby there, but there was the even MORE secret
project where they test flew soviet aircraft acquired by various means.

And it was all surrounded by waves of BS so thick, the actual truth of
the matter was effectively clouded.

If you developed a super computer that could predict the future - then
hand waving in more impossible stuff into the story is going to
discredit the whole thing.